IHS Screen Digest expects Nintendo Wii U to be sold out worldwide this Christmas shopping season, but the long-term success of the new console remains a question mark.
Nintendo Wii U GamePad
Translating Wii U launch performance into longer-term success will be a major challenge
With the landscape of games distribution and consumption altered significantly since the launch of the original Wii, IHS believes that translating this launch sales momentum into Wii-type success will be significantly harder to achieve. As shown in the attached figure, IHS forecasts that Wii U sales over the first four years of its life are expected to reach around 70 percent of the Wii's sales volume.
Nintendo should be laser-focused on consumer engagement in order to remain relevant
In 2006, the Wii brought to market gesture-based controls that no console had used before. Its device innovation, coupled with new and interesting social and lifestyle software, ensured the platform became a word-of-mouth and mainstream success. Nintendo's strength of innovation and first-party content have driven consumers to buy a formidable 92 million Wii consoles worldwide since its launch.
There is no doubt the Wii U underlines Nintendo's credentials as an innovator, introducing the first dedicated and fully integrated second-screen game experience to the market. Yet the fragmented landscape for games consumption and the proliferation of always-on, connected devices, means that product innovation alone is not enough to stay relevant to today's mainstream consumer.
“This time around, Wii U's pure innovation, coupled with a limited volume of high-quality Nintendo software, will not be enough to drive the ongoing sales momentum we witnessed with the Wii console, especially at a higher price point,” said Harding-Rolls. “Long-term success depends on ongoing consumer engagement delivered through the constant release of high-quality content from both first and third parties, a competitive non-games entertainment proposition and a sound digital and online strategy to go along with such innovation. Nintendo is still some way short of delivering a comprehensive engagement-led value proposition at the launch of the Wii U."
